Updated 9/14 900 EDT. Hurricane Ike made landfall in Galveston in an area with extensive oil infrastructure, namely over 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL)).

Our thoughts and prayers go out to those affected by this storm. We would ask that you please keep this thread on point with Hurricane Ike and energy-related articles, stories, maps, data, and links in the comments.

(Graphics and damage forecasts moved below the fold for bandwidth and spacing…it’s all still there…this continues to be the thread to accumulate resources as of 9/14.)

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Path observations and damage estimates for Hurricane Ike–Methaz NHC official track Sep 13 (7:00 EDT)-click twice to enlarge

For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair; Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown) Red: Damage likely; Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind

Here is the latest update from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF updating at 9/13 700 EDT:

Intensity: folks have questioned my landfall estimate, but the data supports it. Examples: Buoy 42035 broke loose from it’s mooring, but apparently it passed through the eye and reported valid data. See attached plot (note: it’s below the fold) – peak winds 55 kts/gusts to 75 kts. RLOT2 failed at 4z, last report was 50kts/65kts, water level 11ft above normal. The station near Texas City, in the left eye wall, peaked at 60 knots. Surge peaked about 12 feet. All of the data indicates landfall wind speeds were no more than 85 knots 2min average winds. The NHC estimated 110mph/95knts “sustained” (whatever that is; nothing measures a “sustained” wind), which would be about 92 knots 2 min average, but as noted earlier they always err on the high side.

Inland areas do NOT seem to be experiencing significant two minute average winds above hurricane force. Don’t be mislead by the media reports of “hurricane force wind gusts”. Gusts don’t count. Scientific definitions matter. I get “hurricane force wind gusts” in thunderstorms here in Savannah all the time.

Impacts: I think the most severe impacts will be confined to the barrier islands. Galveston probably got whacked hard. But I don’t think any of the refineries will suffer major damage, unless something broke that shouldn’t have. It looks like Baytown never caught the peak surge. Texas City might have seen some flooding, but I doubt it was severe.

Don’t get me wrong, there will be a lot of damage from this event – insured losses in the $15 to $20 Billion range, storm total impacts in excess of $60 Billion (if you include evacuation costs, etc.). But with what I see right now, my guess would be that the petrochemical industry recovers fairly quickly, with refinery down times in the days to 2 week time frame, not months. I think the biggest problem is going to be staffing and debris cleanup. The infrastructure was probably OK, but power and crews with damaged homes and cleanup issues will be a big problem.

Harder numbers later today, but my estimates from yesterday are probably pretty close on outage probabilities.

Buoy 42035 reports through Hurricane Ike-click twice to enlarge

MMS reported yesterday that:

97.5% of the oil production and 94.4% of the natural gas production in the Gulf has been shut-in; Personnel have been evacuated from a total of 596 production platforms, equivalent to 83.1% of the 717 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico; Personnel from 101 rigs have also been evacuated–this is equivalent to 83.5% of the 121 rigs currently operating in the Gulf; that staff has been evacuated from 452 production platforms (63.0%) and 81 rigs (66.9%) – (95.9% of the oil production and 73.1% of the natural gas production has been shut-in as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Ike.)

Here is a map of the critical pipeline structure expanding outward nationwide from the Houston/Port Arthur area:

Here are depictions of various Texas cities storm surge maps under different Hurricane scenarios from Weather Underground.

Chuck Watson has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models. We will be updating this thread with damage estimate and breaking news as this story unfolds.

A note on Chuck’s modeling process: we take the official NHC track, the raw computer model tracks like GFDL, HWRF, LBAR, etc, and even run our own in-house fast cycle track/intensity models. These track and intensity estimates are feed to our main hurricane model (TAOS), which computes the wind, waves, storm surge, currents, etc. at each point in our database of over 50,000 elements in the GoM like rigs, platforms, pipelines, pumping stations, refineries, etc. We then have engineering models for each type of infrastructure that calculates the damage and estimated down time for that element, as well as downstream impacts (eg if a pipeline is down, the upstream elements can’t pump and the downstream elements don’t get product).

PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION

Here’s a link to a really good map of oil refining/SPR storage facilities in respect to the path of Katrina (NB: OLD TRACK MAP!) and here is a listing of production and refining capability for the state of LA.

Also, here’s the EIA’s Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here’s a link to the national page.

Here’s a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)

Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)

Here’s a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps from Hurricane Rita, it emphasizes Beaumont and Galveston’s importance. Click on oil production in the tab. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm…hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.

Here’s a link to Rigzone’s coverage of Ike.

You want a detailed map? Well here’s the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)

Also, Scott Wilmoth at Simmons & Co sent us this map on deepwater infrastructure. For a complete list of deepwater development systems (includes operator, depth, location): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/dpstruct.html

(Please deposit new relevant links, graphs, and comments in this new thread…please leave long personal anecdotes and themes unrelated to the storm for the other upcoming ‘bigger picture’ posts, as some of the larger images are difficult to upload for those on dial-up)

We will be posting continued updates of track and damage forecasts here, because one never knows when one of these events may have more than just local impacts. We’re not hurricane experts at theoildrum.com. Thankfully we have an expert meteorologist who sends us track and damage forecasts relevant to oil and gas infrastructure. What we try to do on this site, (and have been doing for over 3 years), is articulate the fragility and urgency of our nation’s, and our world’s, energy situation. As Hurricane Ike moves nearer, and professional analysts gauge the impact it may have on our energy infrastructure, feel free to browse our archives of empirically based analyses and perspectives on the many aspects of our energy situation that form the backdrop not only for this hurricane, but for any exogenous event that disrupts the increasingly uneasy balance between energy supply and demand.

Hurricane Ike’s current track predicts landfall within 100 miles of Galveston Saturday morning; but the storm isn’t strengthening much yet and the track has been moving northwards–so, because of the wobbles in the track, models are still uncertain. Within the current NHC storm path lies about 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (Perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL). Also, the MMS reported Wednesday that staff has been evacuated from 452 production platforms (63.0%) and 81 rigs (66.9%) – (95.9% of the oil production and 73.1% of the natural gas production has been shut-in as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Ike.) Updated 9/11 15:00 EDT.

Current path estimates for Hurricane Ike (Methaz GFDL Sep 11 (15:00 EDT)-click twice to enlarge

For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair; Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown) Red: Damage likely; Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind

Here is the latest update from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF as of 11 Sep 15:00 EDT:

The latest track models are converging on the Houston area, between Freeport and High Island. That’s bad news from a refinery perspective. The question is increasingly shifting from “where” to “how strong”, and with Ike that’s a tough question to answer. The threshold to watch for as the storm approaches landfall is 100 knots (115mph). For every 5 knots less than that the damage drops off rapidly, and more importantly the recovery times improve. If the storm landfall intensity is over 100 knots, we start to see damage that requires major structural work and therefore recovery times start to skyrocket.

The latest GFDL scenario is not pretty, and the refinery estimate from this morning (nearly 6 MMBBL/day of refinery capacity for over a month, (38% US/5% global capacity) is in play.

I’m still skeptical the surface winds will be over 100kts at landfall. The good news is that Ike is having a hard time getting organized. There is a fair amount of dry are to the west, and if it gets entrained the storm will collapse. The bad news is that Ike is still pushing the dry air out of the way, and there is still plenty of time for it to get organized. Lots of discussion about the size of the wind field, and it is true that will elevate water levels and damage coastal property. But from the oil/gas perspective, that doesn’t concern me as much as the organization of the winds in the core and damage swath. HWRF essentially crashes the intensity to tropical storm strength before landfall – I think that’s pretty dramatic, but a cat1 landfall wouldn’t surprise me. A Cat 3 would. Again, don’t bet your life on it – get out of the way!

I’d leave the door open to a further east track as well – like Port Arthur – that’s a 1 in 3 in my thinking. (2 in 3 Houston, 1 in three to the east).

We will be posting periodic updates of track and damage forecasts here, because one never knows if one of these events will be seminal. We’re not hurricane experts at theoildrum.com. Thankfully we have an expert meteorologist who sends us track and damage forecasts relevant to oil and gas infrastructure. What we try to do on this site, (and have been doing for over 3 years), is articulate the fragility and urgency of our nation’s, and our world’s, energy situation. As Hurricane Ike moves nearer, and professional analysts gauge the impact it may have on our energy infrastructure, feel free to browse our archives of empirically based analyses and perspectives on the many aspects of our energy situation that form the backdrop not only for this hurricane, but for any exogenous event that disrupts the increasingly uneasy balance between energy supply and demand.
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NHC Forecast for Hurricane Ike – click to go to Wunderground

Here are depictions of various Texas cities storm surge maps under different Hurricane scenarios from Weather Underground.

Regarding Port of Houston:

The Port of Houston is closing tonight as Hurricane Ike approaches, most coastal refineries will make storm decisions today, and offshore energy facilities are extending precautions they took just a week ago for Hurricane Gustav.

The Barbours Cut and Bayport terminals will shut down at noon today, and the port will close to all vessel traffic at midnight, spokeswoman Argentina James said. The Port’s 25-mile-long complex is a hub in the nation’s energy network. Forecasts Wednesday evening projected Ike would come ashore Saturday between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Port Freeport, about 65 miles south of Houston in a mandatory evacuation zone for Brazoria County, shut down early Wednesday afternoon and expects to reopen Monday, Chief Executive Pete Reixach said. As vessel traffic declined, gasoline retailers were gearing up for a possible surge of evacuating motorists. Motiva, a refining and retail gasoline joint venture between Shell Oil Co. and Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Aramco, said in a prepared statement that its coastal service stations and refueling terminals were being stocked up in anticipation of higher demand. Shell-branded stations also were setting up generators to keep pumps running in the case of a power outage.

Here is the latest update from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF as of 11 Sep 9:30 EDT:

Ike continues to wobble towards Texas – where is still an open question – and continues to not intensify. As noted by NHC this morning, the interior structure of Ike is unusual. It’s not unusual for a storm to have two eyewalls during what is called an eye replacement cycle; it is unusual to maintain these structures over an extended period of time. The outer wind maximum is helping to keep Ike weak; if it collapses the inner core can strengthen rapidly. I’m still thinking mid Cat 3 is the max this storm will get, and high Cat 2 at landfall, but those who argue for Cat 4 could still be right if Ike gets his act together – I just don’t think that is likely. As usual, take all such speculation with a grain of salt and if you are in the way of the storm get out.

As for impacts, here are two scenarios, offered by two respected dynamical models. The first, from HWRF, goes south towards Corpus Christi. It would damage about 5% of GoM production, and damage less than 1 MMBBL/day of refinery capacity (bad, but not catastrophic). The second, GFDL (which is the best performing model for Ike, and as of the 8am position fix is closest to observed track), is rather unpleasant: 15% production impact (bad, but again not catastrophic), but we stand to lose nearly 6 MMBBL/day of refinery capacity for over a month. That’s 38% of US Capacity, and 6% of global capacity. Is catastrophic too strong a word – I don’t think so. There just isn’t that much spare capacity in the system, so I would expect shortages of refined products if the GFDL scenario plays out. But always keep in mind that small wobbles and intensity changes make a huge difference in damage. The NHC track, which splits the difference between these two tracks, give us 8% production damage and less than 2 MMBBL refinery damage. As I said yesterday, the refinery damage is what to watch in this storm. We should have a better picture this afternoon, when the storm might turn more to the north or continue towards Corpus.

(9/10 16:30 EDT Update):

Well, Ike didn’t entrain any dry air, and has been moving quite slowly, although intensity has not picked up as much as I would have thought given that scenario. Still, I think the Cat 2 cap I was thinking this morning is probably low and the storm could reach Cat 3 before landfall. That said, I don’t think it will be Cat 3 at landfall, but that is instinct more than analysis. GFDL sort of agrees – minimum Cat 3 at landfall. How’s that for equivocating?

If the GFDL scenario plays out at Cat 3 or higher, current tracks are bad news for refining capacity. The current GFDL scenario is very close to the LBAR scenario mentioned this morning. Current track would take out long term 5-10% of GOM production, but that’s not the problem. So, if the GFDL scenario plays out at a Cat 3 or higher, we are looking at having 20% of US refining capacity, and 5% of global capacity, offline for a month or more. Production side damage becomes irrelevant at that point.

Once again I’d like to remind everyone that these discussions are with regard to a bunch of valuable, important, but ultimately replaceable hardware. Follow the instructions of your local officials, and evacuate if that is recommended.

(Sep 10 11:30EDT) update, (since revised, but it contains additional information)

Ike’s track continues to move slowly northwestward, and while organization is fair, it has apparently not started rapid intensification as of 9am. On the current track the storm will skirt south of the key Gulf of Mexico (GoM) infrastructure. However, it is vital to understand that very slight wobbles – even 10-20 miles – can make a huge difference in damage. Remember that swath of heavy damage for most hurricanes, even intense ones, is only 50-75 miles wide. Also recall that damage is exponential – 110 mph winds may be 10% higher than 100 mph winds, but will cause 20% more damage.

Above is the 8am ET LBAR scenario, which is about as “worst case” as this storm can get. It would take out over 5 MMBBL of refinery capacity for an extended period – 30% of total US refining capacity. This nightmare track is at the moment on the northern edge of the guidance, but well within the realm of possibility at this point. On the current official forecast track and key dynamic models (GFDL, HWRF) the storm grazes the southern edge of key production/processing areas, causing short term outages largely due to evacuations and precautionary shutdowns but no extensive damages.

As for intensity, there is dry air to the west of the storm. It is not yet entrained, but if it does, the intensity estimates may be on the high side. Our present thinking is that OCS and landfall intensity will not be over Cat 2, something the infrastructure can handle with minor damage. As a side note, these tracks are far enough north to avoid PEMEX assets.

Chuck Watson has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models. We will be updating this thread with damage estimate and breaking news as this story unfolds.

A note on our modeling process: we take the official NHC track, the raw computer model tracks like GFDL, HWRF, LBAR, etc, and even run our own in-house fast cycle track/intensity models. These track and intensity estimates are feed to our main hurricane model (TAOS), which computes the wind, waves, storm surge, currents, etc. at each point in our database of over 50,000 elements in the GoM like rigs, platforms, pipelines, pumping stations, refineries, etc. We then have engineering models for each type of infrastructure that calculates the damage and estimated down time for that element, as well as downstream impacts (eg if a pipeline is down, the upstream elements can’t pump and the downstream elements don’t get product).

PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION

Here’s a link to a really good map of oil refining/SPR storage facilities in respect to the path of Katrina (NB: OLD TRACK MAP!) and here is a listing of production and refining capability for the state of LA.

Just to give you a rough idea of where things are, the map above is a probability swath for Katrina (OLD TRACK MAP!) with the Thunder Horse platform as the red dot, and the other purple dot represents the Mad Dog development (100,000 bd); the Holstein development that produces at peak, around 100,000 bd of oil; and the Atlantis field that may have ramped up to around 200,000 bd in all. Put together these projects have the potential of around 650,000 bd, but as can be seen, they were sitting in an uncomfortable spot relative to the track of the Katrina.The white dot is where Port Fourchon is.  This is where the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, is located. Rigzone pointed out that this is where the foreign tankers offload, Google and Terraserve maps you can see that the area is very low-lying.  One of the big concerns is that there will be sub-sea landslides or other ground movement that might affect the LOOP.  Were this to be disrupted, then foreign tankers would need to be diverted elsewhere, with the likely port being Houston.

Here is a really good link/map (from “Rod and Reel” no less) of the LA southern coastline showing all of the Submersible and Floater Gulf rigs.

We have accumulated resources from previous hurricans below, but we’d like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.

Also, here’s the EIA’s Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here’s a link to the national page.

Here’s another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)

Here’s a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)

Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)

Here’s a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps from Hurricane Rita, it emphasizes Beaumont and Galveston’s importance. Click on oil production in the tab. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm…hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.

Here’s a link to Rigzone’s coverage of Ike.

You want a detailed map? Well here’s the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)

Also, Scott Wilmoth at Simmons & Co was kind enough to send us this map. The map below captures only deepwater infrastructure. For a complete list of deepwater development systems (includes operator, depth, location): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/dpstruct.html

(Please deposit new relevant links, graphs, and comments in this new thread…we have updated the resources part of this post with new maps and some more old maps and articles from Katrina on the LOOP and Port Fourchon–important parts of the infrastructure, as we learned about three years ago. Please leave personal anecdotes and themes unrelated to hurricane for the other upcoming ‘bigger picture’ posts, as some of these larger images are difficult to upload for those on dial-up)

We appreciate your help accumulating resources, stories, and newstips in the comment thread below!

* ASPO-USA is holding its conference September 21-23 in Sacramento, CA, at the Hyatt Regency Sacramento. The website is here: http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/matrix.cfm

* Hotel Rooms at Special Conference Rate are selling out. ASPO-USA increased its block to accommodate but rooms are going fast.

* Special guest Bob Hirsch will provide Summary and Response for Monday. Monday’s sessions:

-Oil: Once Cheap, Never Easy
-Pipedreams: Oil & Gas Delivery Bottlenecks
-Economic Impacts of $100 Oil: Energy is the Original Currency
-4 Billion New Consumers: What Asian Growth Means For East, West, And The World

More notes on events and updated schedule on lunch speakers below the fold. Make your plans to come to Sacramento today!

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* New Closing Session: Our Energy Challenge: A Dialogue with Conference Speakers: By popular demand the 2008 Peak Oil Conference will close with an interactive panel discussion. Conference speakers will form our panel and respond to your questions.

* Networking Events Galore!

* Monday Keynote Lunch

The Shifting Playing field. Big Oil and Resource Nationalism
- Jim Buckee retired CEO, Talisman Energy
- Introduction by Jeremy Gilbert

*Tuesday Keynote Lunch
- The Power of Flight: The Future of Aviation
- Michael Boyd, President, The Boyd Group Inc.

Noon EDT on http://www.kzyx.org. Have a listen!

Well, it’s the day after. We need your assistance. In this thread, we would appreciate any materials, links, maps, charts, etc., that will help us all understand what Gustav did to oil and natural gas supply/production and gasoline availability, if any. Help us keep this focused, please. (Eds. Note: Please put resources and comments on damage related issues in this column. Please put comments on more general issues (for example, the impact on the Republican convention, or on politics in general in Drumbeat).

Under the fold are discussions of the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, Port Fourchon, damage model maps, the hurricane itself, and many of the other resources we had yesterday.
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Here is Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF’s landfall composite damage estimate for Gulf (GOM) oil and NG production, which covers the GoM loss for the month of September in to the context of overall oil production, imports, and refining. Note for those crunching the numbers that since GoM is about 25% of US production, 40% of the GOM’s contribution of 25% is 10% of the total US production.

COMP ATCF Forecast Time: 2008090112
14 day:    8.21 MMBBL ( 52.36% normal), gas   63.50 BCF ( 65.91% normal)
30 day:   19.98 MMBBL ( 59.46% normal), gas  145.98 BCF ( 70.70% normal)
60 day:   43.01 MMBBL ( 64.00% normal), gas  304.43 BCF ( 73.73% normal)
90 day:   95.23 MMBBL ( 94.47% normal), gas  586.06 BCF ( 94.62% normal)
6 mon :  195.13 MMBBL ( 96.79% normal), gas 1205.43 BCF ( 97.31% normal)
1 year:  400.48 MMBBL ( 97.96% normal), gas 2478.60 BCF ( 98.67% normal)

Interpretation: the models say that 40% of GOM oil will be offline for 30 days and ~30% of GOM NG for will be offline for 30 days–followed by marginal increases in GOM supply (both imports and production) through the next months. (E.g., the 60 day number for oil is 36% shut-in, but between 60-90 days, the number goes down to 5% of GOM oil shut-in.)

UPDATE: 10:00 EDT 9/1 – Graphic below is damage models based on LBAR hurricane forecast track, key is below. Numerical damage estimates are below the fold for oil and natural gas shut-in and damage.

Path/damage estimates using LBAR 10:00 EDT forecast-click twice to enlarge

For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair; Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown) Red: Damage likely; Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP (see JoulesBurn’s story on the LOOP here), and Port Fourchon, which has historically been a land base for offshore oil support services in the Gulf, was in the path of Gustav and is expected to be damaged. As you will see below, a good bit of oil and natural gas is also expected to be taken offline: some for weeks, some for much longer, according to Methaz’ models.

Matthew Simmons, of Simmons International says this about the importance of the LOOP:

LOOP is the only facility in the Gulf to unload VLCC tankers which carry over 2 million barrels of crude. They can in theory be “litered” by unloading onto smaller tankers that can make it into the Gulf Coast ports but this is very lengthy timewise and the spare capacity of these smaller tankers is slim. We get about 1.2 million b/d of crude imports through Loop. (+/- 10%)

Final forecast update from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF:

Here’s the 9/1 update:

Well, I think someone (who out of modesty shall remain nameless) forecast several days ago, Gustav would hit unfavorable conditions in the northern Gulf and never make it back to mega-storm strength. That seems to be the case. Center landfall with peak winds of 100kts or maybe slightly less looks to be at Grand Isle, at 8am ET – as of 730et the “eyewall” appears to be touching land.

I’m mostly sticking with the synthesis from last night (based on multiple models) as to impacts, and we’re now in a “wait and see what the inspections bring” mode. The big question is what if any major damage the LOOP suffered and (perhaps more vulnerable than the LOOP itself) the connection pipelines to shore. Baseline estimate is 10-14 days for the port itself. Radar shot (7:30am ET) with tracks and LOOP labeled attached.

Production: Unless something broke that shouldn’t have, we expect production to be back up to 60-70% within 30 days, and back to 95% by the end of the year. We expect a long-term hit of 3% or so since this swath went through some areas that Ivan, Katrina, and Rita missed and some older, less productive wells will not be restored.

Refineries and distribution: Mainly short term disruption due to precautionary shutdowns, no long term unless we get unlucky with pipelines.

All in all, my thinking is that this could have been a lot worse. Storm was disorganized crossing the OCS, so waves and storm surge will be lower than they should be for a storm of this size and intensity.

Next month is the ASPO conference in Sacramento CA. Nate Hagens will be one of the speakers in the plenary (as well as on the Sunday TOD breakout panels). Here is a video of the talk he gave last year at the international ASPO VI venue in Cork Ireland. The speech covered net energy, energy properties and externalities on the supply side and addiction, relative fitness and steep discount rates from an evolutionary perspective on the demand side. Here is a link to the slides themselves, (which aren’t fully shown at times on the video).

Chris Nelder was on <a href=”Yahoo’s Tech Ticker with Aaron Task today. Chris is author of Profit from the Peak: The End of Oil and the Greatest Investment Event of the Century (which was reviewed by Robert Rapier in this post). Chris will have another book (with Jeff Siegel) coming out soon, Investing in Renewable Energy: Making Money on Green Chip Stocks, but it doesn’t come out until October.

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Here’s a link to a second video, which I am having a harder time bringing over: The End Is Nigh: Peak Oil Proponent Forecasts Grim Future. (Yes, that’s right, Chris is a “proponent” of peak oil. Why not just call him an “advocate.” Jeesh Yahoo!, you should know better.)

In James Howard Kunstler’s view, public spaces should be inspired centers of civic life and the physical manifestation of the common good. Instead, he argues, what we have in America is a nation of places not worth caring about.

Under the fold, more Kunster, an interview with Paul Erhlich, and a copy of a recently published paper of Al Bartlett’s on population, climate, and the world we live in.
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And here’s “Oil Myths, Oil Facts,” A peak oil segment from an east Texas news show. James Kunstler is inteviewed via telephone.

Part 1

Part 2

***

http://www.eenews.net/tv/rss/2008/07/24/

Society: Controversial environmental author Paul Ehrlich talks biofuels, offshore drilling, peak oil (OnPoint, 07/24/2008) OnPoint, 07/24/2008

Forty years ago, author Paul Ehrlich stirred up controversy by predicting that the world’s steady population growth would cause hundreds of millions of people to starve within a decade of publication of “The Population Bomb.” Though his predictions were wrong, he is often credited with having had a major influence on the environmental movement in the ’60s and ’70s. During today’s OnPoint, Paul Ehrlich, author of the new book “The Dominant Animal” and Bing professor of population studies and professor of biological sciences at Stanford University, gives his take on today’s top energy and environment issues. He also responds to critics who have accused him of using scare tactics.

***

Here’s a recent article by Albert Bartlett. Like many, Al is not optimistic about the Pickens/Gore plan. You will understand his reasoning when you read the article.

Published in the Teachers Clearinghouse

for Science and Society Education Newsletter

Vol. 27, No. 2, Spring 2008, Pg. 21

WHY HAVE SCIENTISTS SUCCUMBED

TO POLITICAL CORRECTNESS?

Albert A. Bartlett, University of Colorado at Boulder , 80309-0390

Albert.Bartlett@Colorado.EDU

Throughout the world, scientists are prominently involved in seeking solutions to the major global problems such as global climate change and the growing inadequacy of energy supplies. They present their writings in publications ranging from newspapers to refereed scientific journals, but with a few rare exceptions, on one point they all replace objectivity with “political correctness.”

In their writings the scientists identify the cause of the problems as being growing populations. But their recommendations for solving the problems caused by population growth almost never include the recommendation that we advocate stopping population growth. Political Correctness dictates that we do not address the current problem of overpopulation in the U.S. and the world.

We can demonstrate that the Earth is overpopulated by noting the following:

A SELF-EVIDENT TRUTH:
If any fraction of the observed global warming
can be attributed to the actions of humans,
then this, by itself, constitutes

clear and compelling evidence
that the human population, living as we do,
has exceeded the Carrying Capacity of the Earth,
a situation that is clearly not sustainable.

As a consequence it is AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
that all proposals or efforts
at the local, national or global levels
to solve the problems of global warming
are serious intellectual frauds
if they fail to advocate that we address
the fundamental cause of global warming
namely overpopulation.

We can demonstrate that the U.S. is overpopulated by noting that we now (2008) import something like 60% of the petroleum that we consume, around 15% of the natural gas that we consume and about 20% of the food we eat. Because the U.S. population increases by something over 3 million per year, all of these fractions are increasing. Natural gas production in North America has peaked in spite of the drilling of hundreds of new gas wells annually. In a nutshell, the U.S. in 2008 is unsustainable.

Let’s look at two prominent examples of this political correctness. The book, “An Inconvenient Truth” (1) was published to accompany Al Gore’s wonderful film by the same name. On page 216 Gore writes; “The fundamental relationship between our civilization and the ecological system of the Earth has been utterly and radically transformed by the powerful convergence of three factors. The first is the population explosion…”

It’s clear that Gore understands the role of overpopulation in the genesis of global climate change. The last chapter in the book has the title, “So here’s what you personally can do to help solve the climate crisis.” The list of 36 things starts with “Choose energy-efficient lighting” and runs through an inventory of all of the usual suspects without ever calling for us to address overpopulation!

As a second example, in the Clearinghouse Newsletter (2) we read the statement, “Human Impacts on Climate” from the Council of the American Geophysical Union, The title recognizes the human component of climate change which we note is roughly proportional to the product of the number of people and their average per capita annual resource consumption. The last paragraph of the A.G.U. statement starts with the sentence, “With climate change, as with ozone depletion, the human footprint on Earth is apparent.” The rest of the paragraph suggests what must be done, and it’s all the standard boilerplate. “Solutions will necessarily involve all aspects of society. Mitigation strategies and adaptation responses will call for collaborations across science, technology, industry, and government.” Etc., Etc., Etc… There is no mention of addressing the overpopulation which the statement recognizes is the cause of the problems.

A few years ago I wrote an article calling the attention of the physics community to this shortcoming.(3) To my amazement, most of the letters to the editor responding to my article supported the politically correct unscientific point of view. (4), (5)

Many journalists look to the scientists for advice. The scientists won’t talk about overpopulation, so the journalists and the reading public can easily conclude that overpopulation is not a problem. As a result, we have things such as the cover story in TIME Magazine, April 9, 2007, “The Global Warming Survival Guide: 51 Things You Can Do to Make a Difference.” The list contained such useful recommendations as “Build a Skyscraper,” (No. 9, Pg. 74) but not one of the 51recommendations deals with the need to address overpopulation!

What’s one to do when scientists and political leaders demonstrate their understanding of the fact that overpopulation is the main cause of these gigantic global problems, yet the scientists’ recommendations for dealing with the problems never call for addressing overpopulation?

(1) Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth, The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It. Rodale Press, Emmaus , PA , 2006

(2) Teachers Clearinghouse for Science and Society Education Newsletter, Winter 2008, Pg. 19

(3) A.A. Bartlett, “Thoughts on Long-Term Energy Supplies: Scientists and the Silent Lie,” Physics Today, July 2004, Pgs. 53-55

(4) Letters: Physics Today, November 2004, Pgs. 12-18

(5) Letters: Physics Today, April 2006, Pgs. 12-15