Article Archive for August 2008
Interview with New Orleans Musician Amanda Shaw
With Hurricane Gustav threatening the Gulf Coast, TreeHugger’s meeting with Cajun-pop prodigy Amanda Shaw takes on a certain urgency. A shadow of concern for her family, friends and home hangs over the interview about her wetlands activism, her part in the IMAX film Hurricane on the Bayou, and her memories of Katrina.
Amanda Shaw and her band, the Cute Boys, are in Minnesota to play the 17th annual Grand Portage Bayou Boogie festival and the potentially hurrica…
Hurricane Gustav is now a (weak) Category 3. 18Z models have reduced the damage forecast; however, this can change if it weakens further or re-intensifies or has different landfall track and speed, etc.
Updates today from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF:
Here’s the 18Z update: While not wonderful, the forecasts for GOM infrastructure continue to improve. While the NHC forecast remains pessimistic, and Gustav shows some signs of trying to regain its strength, it is not having a lot of success. For wave and surge generation, organization is key - even if the spot winds pick up, unless the wind field is organized well overall surges and waves will not be as high as the raw wind speed might indicate. Our surge models are dropping water levels significantly (still, 18 ft will ruin your day). Surge model run is attached - much less dramatic than the Cat 4 maps floating around. Damage trends for other models are improving as well. This is looking less and less bad for the GoM Oil/Gas production, IF the post-Katrina improvements hold. The disorganization and track shifts have reduced the threat to the LOOP - makes me happier. I’m really thinking that by tomorrow evening we will be talking about “dodging a bullet”. Final word: DON’T NOT EVACUATE JUST BECAUSE THINGS LOOK BETTER! These
are just models. Don’t bet your life on it.
Here’s the noon update. Given the weaker forecast at landfall, things are not looking as dire. Bad, but not catastrophic. Still showing a near direct hit on the LOOP, but damage has come down, to weeks rather than months. CAUTION: Just because the storm is weakening, and therefore less forecast damage to the GoM infrastructure, doesn’t mean this storm can’t kill you. Stay safe, stay gone!
UPDATE: 17:00 EST 8/31 - Graphic below is damage models based on official NHC hurricane forecast track, key is below. Numbers are below the fold. The noon models have them weakening somewhat.
Path/damage estimates using NHC 17:00 forecast-click twice to enlarge
For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair; Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown) Red: Damage likely; Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind
We are not hurricane experts at theoildrum.com. Neither are we experts on damage forecasts to oil and gas infrastructure from weather events (though thankfully we do have an expert that helps us). What we try to do, and have been doing for over 3 years, is articulate the fragility and urgency of our nation’s, and our world’s, energy situation. As Hurricane Gustav moves nearer, and professional meteorologists and energy analysts gauge the impact it may have on our energy infrastructure, feel free to browse our archives of hundreds of empirically based analyses and perspectives on the myriad energy issues that form the backdrop not only for this hurricane, but for any exogenous event that disrupts the increasingly uneasy balance between energy supply and demand in our modern interconnected world.
There are many resources under the fold (by clicking “there’s more” in this post), including details of the latest oil/infra damage estimates from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF as well as lot of other resources including rig maps, models, google earth maps, and a lot more in the comments.
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Update from Matthew Simmons, of Simmons International:
LOOP is the only facility in the Gulf to unload VLCC tankers which carry over 2 million barrels of crude. They can in theory be “litered” by unloading onto smaller tankers that can make it into the Gulf Coast ports but this is very lenghty timing and the spare capacity of these smaller tankers is slim. We get about 1.2 million b/d of crude imports through Loop. (+/- 10%)
Click map to go to WUnderground
Here’s the 6a EST 8/31 update: I think it’s on the hot side, but their job is evacuation, not damage prediction. The LOOP is my main concern at this stage. It’s an important piece of infrastructure, and it is right in the bullseye. A 20 mile left or right shift, and 10 or 15 knots of wind speed means the difference between days and months of repair/recovery time. NHC track is Bad for the LOOP; some tracks to the east are better (not so good for NOLA, though). I’m sticking fairly close to my probabilities from a couple days ago, minus the Mexico and Tampa side trips: 30% Cat 3/4 landfall in LA, 30% cat 2 landfall in LA, 10% to Pensacola area, 20% farther west, 10% something goofy.
(UPDATED noon est 8/31)
Here are this mornings comments and estimates from Chuck Watson–note they are down from earlier:
Official Forecast Track OFCL ATCF Forecast Time: 2008083118 14 day: 10.46 MMBBL ( 64.97% normal), gas 70.58 BCF ( 78.78% normal) 30 day: 24.22 MMBBL ( 70.20% normal), gas 164.09 BCF ( 85.46% normal) 60 day: 51.28 MMBBL ( 74.32% normal), gas 349.37 BCF ( 90.98% normal) 90 day: 79.29 MMBBL ( 76.61% normal), gas 541.75 BCF ( 94.05% normal) 6 mon : 172.35 MMBBL ( 83.26% normal), gas 1149.46 BCF ( 99.78% normal) 1 year: 377.70 MMBBL ( 89.98% normal), gas 2422.62 BCF (103.71% normal)
Here is the 17:00 8/31 update:
Compare the 6 month forecast from just 6 hours ago–first two included:
30/18z: 152.45 MMBBL ( 73.65% normal), gas 1040.40 BCF ( 90.30% normal) 31/06z: 139.37 MMBBL ( 67.33% normal), gas 972.17 BCF ( 84.39% normal) 31/12z: 159.36 MMBBL ( 76.99% normal), gas 1007.31 BCF ( 87.44% normal) 31/18z: 172.35 MMBBL ( 83.26% normal), gas 1149.46 BCF ( 99.78% normal)Damage trends for other models are improving as well. This is looking
less and less bad for the GoM Oil/Gas production, IF the post-Katrina
improvements hold. The disorganization and track shifts have reduced the
threat to the LOOP - makes me happier. I’m really thinking that by
tomorrow evening we will be talking about “dodging a bullet”.Final word: DON’T NOT EVACUATE JUST BECAUSE THINGS LOOK BETTER! These
are just models. Don’t bet your life on it.
Here’s a new graphic for the forecasted surge from Chuck (17:00 8/31 update):
Also, an important Safety Tip: it is VITAL that folks DO NOT use our info for evacuation planning (this means you, Alan!). Our discussions here are with respect to a bunch of hardware, not feline or even human lives. We don’t want to be wrong on either the high or low side, especially since being wrong on the high side has bad consequences for pricing, that’s why I keep emphasizing this thing may not be as bad as the models are predicting because there are signs and portents the storm will not gain as much strength as forecast. If you are in an evacuation zone, get your pets, get your insurance paperwork, and GET OUT.
–
A note on our modeling process: we take the official NHC track, the raw computer model tracks like GFDL, HWRF, LBAR, etc, and even run our own in-house fast cycle track/intensity models. These track and intensity estimates are feed to our main hurricane model (TAOS), which computes the wind, waves, storm surge, currents, etc. at each point in our database of over 50,000 elements in the GoM like rigs, platforms, pipelines, pumping stations, refineries, etc. We then have engineering
models for each type of infrastructure that calculates the damage and estimated down time for that element, as well as downstream impacts (eg if a pipeline is down, the upstream elements can’t pump and the downstream elements don’t get product).
Chuck has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models. We will be updating this thread with damage estimate and breaking news as this story unfolds, as well as post another story on why Hurricane Gustav or any exogenous supply event is potentially critical in a world with little slack in supply of high quality oil.
HPC 5 day rainfall estimates (12z 8/31)
PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION
Here’s a link to a really good map of oil refining/SPR storage facilities in respect to the path of Katrina (NB: OLD TRACK MAP!) and here is a listing of production and refining capability for the state of LA.
Just to give you a rough idea of where things are, the map above is a probability swath for Katrina (OLD TRACK MAP!) with the Thunder Horse platform as the red dot, and the other purple dot represents the Mad Dog development (100,000 bd); the Holstein development that produces at peak, around 100,000 bd of oil; and the Atlantis field that may have ramped up to around 200,000 bd in all. Put together these projects have the potential of around 650,000 bd, but as can be seen, they were sitting in an uncomfortable spot relative to the track of the Katrina.The white dot is where Port Fourchon is. This is where the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, is located. Rigzone pointed out that this is where the foreign tankers offload, Google and Terraserve maps you can see that the area is very low-lying. One of the big concerns is that there will be sub-sea landslides or other ground movement that might affect the LOOP. Were this to be disrupted, then foreign tankers would need to be diverted elsewhere, with the likely port being Houston.
We have accumulated resources from previous hurricans below, but we’d like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.
Also, here’s the EIA’s Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here’s a link to the national page.
Here’s another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)
Here’s a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)
Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)
Here’s a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps from Hurricane Rita, it emphasizes Beaumont and Galveston’s importance. Click on oil production in the tab. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm…hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.
Here’s a link to Rigzone’s coverage of Gustav.
You want a detailed map? Well here’s the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)
Also, Scott Wilmoth at Simmons & Co was kind enough to send us this map. The map below captures only deepwater infrastructure. For a complete list of deepwater development systems (includes operator, depth, location): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/dpstruct.html
(Please deposit new relevant links, graphs, and comments in this new thread…we have updated the resources part of this post with new maps and some more old maps and articles from Katrina on the LOOP and Port Fourchon–important parts of the infrastructure, as we learned about three years ago. Please leave personal anecdotes and themes unrelated to hurricane for the other upcoming ‘bigger picture’ posts, as yesterdays information was difficult to upload for those on dial-up)
Image from mape_s
After getting past the initial shock of hearing about John McCain’s selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, I quickly honed in on two particularly salient aspects of her environmental views: her belief that climate change is not man-made and her opposition to the polar bear’s listing as a threatened species. Now while I may not yet know much about Palin’s overall record in offic…
While astronomers at the Macdonald Observatory in Fort Davis, TX are studying the solar system, the BLOOMhouse has one of its own.
Nestled high up on a mountaintop outside of Fort Davis, TX is where the solar powered BLOOMhouse now resides. The BLOOMhouse was one of the entries in the biennial Solar Decathlon that was held in Washington D.C. last year to demonstrate the power of the sun to our governing bodies and public. The competition challenge…
This post is one in a series of video blogs about biking across America with WE ADD UP to raise awareness about how to stop global warming. Check out more posts in this series here.
Truth be known, by the time we had biked to Wyoming, there were several times along the way where Carson was on the verge of pressing the bike trip’s red abort bu…
Oslo’s city government has promised to install 400 electric car charging/parking places over the next four years. Meanwhile Norway’s electric car manufacturer THINK is turning out its THINK city cars at the rate of just three per day, which has created a local waiting list 700 customers long.
U.S.$10 gallon gas makes ‘el-bil’ look good
High prices for jet fuel may have made rap star Diddy ground his private jet for the moment, but Europeans and especially Norwegians are finding it <a href=”http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/world/europe/29fuel.html?_r=…
Rep. Bartlett pursues lonely energy crusade
WASHINGTON - Charts at the ready, notes spread out before him, Rep. Roscoe G. Bartlett begins another address in the House of Representatives on the dangers of America’s dependence on oil.
The Western Maryland Republican has given nearly 50 such speeches at the Capitol in the past three years, most of them variations on a theme: that a coming decline in petroleum production, coupled with growing demand for energy, will have a calamitous impact on the global economy.
“The world as a whole, and our country included, has appeared to behave as if these fossil fuels were inexhaustible,” the former university professor lectures. “What we’ll see shortly is that - as everyone will know, if you stop and think about it - that oil is finite.”
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Up until Tuesday, oil was crashing down toward $110 a barrel as demand growth estimates have been clipped. So what happened to peak oil? Nothing happened; peak oil should still be a concern.
SchNews Drills For the Truth In Peak Oil Theory
All of this has some anarcho-primitivists jumping with glee at the prospect of the imminent collapse of earth-raping industrial capitalist society. But, before you stock up on tinned goods, shotgun cartridges and bottled water, here’s a few things to consider:
Firstly, there’s no oil shortage. This may come as a bit of a surprise to all those who’ve been watching the prices rise and rise. As the Saudis recently pointed out to outgoing President Bush - pumping more oil won’t lower the price. Actually, there’s a glut of oil in the supply markets. The Iranians (one of the oil nations pumping under their maximum capacity) have tankers full of the stuff that they just can’t shift because no one wants it. What’s lacking is refining capacity.
Cold season will push up oil price says Iran
Iran’s oil minister suggested on Sunday crude at $100 a barrel was the lowest appropriate level but said factors like the approaching cold season would push up demand and prices, an Oil Ministry website reported.
Oil sands: The storm over Canada’s hottest commodity
In this two-part series, the Independent Record examines Canadian oil sands production, its impact on the economy and the environment, and the potential connection to Montana’s own energy development.
It may be too soon to exit oil-dollar bet
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The long oil/short dollar bet may be off the table for now as energy prices ease and the U.S. currency rises, but inflation and inherent risks in commodities supply could bring this popular trade back.
Understanding Putin and the conflict in the Caucasus
And that brings us to the Caucasus/Georgia region, and why Putin pressed the Chechen war after he took office. He did so for good reasons – access to the oil and the Caspian Sea. Georgia itself holds the keys to a quantum leap in Russian income and power. There is a pipeline through Georgia from Baku that is the only exit for oil from Central Asia that does not pay toll to Russia. Seizing control of that pipeline will both give Russia income from that oil, and it will provide Russia with the means to strangle the Central Asian former provinces into submission. The significance of these nations for Americans is primarily the economic impact on our pocketbook when the price of oil rises again because Russia gets control of another 46 billion barrels of oil to increase its own 74 billion barrels of reserves. In the larger picture, those Central Asian nations can serve as a tool to bring the USA lower by more and more rapid wealth transfer as prices rise.
Nigeria militants: 29 military personnel killed
LAGOS, Nigeria - Nigeria’s main militant group claimed Saturday that it killed at least 29 military personnel in three separate attacks across the restive southern oil region.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said in an e-mail statement that the near-simultaneous battles came in the three main oil producing states of southern Nigeria, leaving 29 dead and others unaccounted for after they jumped from their military boats.
The group reported that six of its own fighters were also killed in the clashes, which they say they launched as reprisals for attacks they allege the military carried out on civilians.
South Korea: ‘No Pole Sign’ System Troubles Refiners
Local oil companies are in trouble over a new policy starting today, which will demolish exclusive ties between them and gas stations.
Gas pumps will be allowed to sell oil products from all companies with the abrogation of what was called the ”pole sign policy.” A mixture of products from various companies will be also available as long as sellers inform consumers.
Under the previous policy, gas stations could only deal with the brand they displayed, with violation subject to legal punishment.
Will Brazil Really Nationalize Oil?
Brazilian oil workers with the FUP oil union have threatened a nationwide strike, in what seems like another step toward nationalized oil in Brazil
The saber rattling is aimed at Brazil’s biggest oil company, Petrobras. While contentious union relations at Petrobras are part and parcel of the company’s operations, what’s different here is that the conversation focuses on the pre-salt layer off Brazil, triggered by last year’s massive Tupi find.
Kuwait inflation spurred by external factors: banker
KUWAIT CITY (AFP) - Governor of the Central Bank of Kuwait Sheikh Salem Abdulaziz al-Sabah has said inflation in the oil-rich emirate, which has hit record levels, is mainly caused by external factors.
“Inflation in Kuwait is imported … since the country imports most of its commodities from abroad,” Sheikh Salem said in statements cited by the official KUNA news agency late Saturday.
External factors such as prices in exporting nations, insurance fees and transport costs influence Kuwaiti imports, said the governor, adding that 30 percent of Kuwaiti imports come from Europe and 14 percent from the United States.
Saudi Arabia positioned to become solar power
In the wake of the first Gulf War, the U.S. Army assessed Saudi Arabia’s solar energy resource potential in a classified effort to determine how oil fires had affected the region.
The results were clear and surprising. In addition to being a vast petroleum repository, the desert nation was also the heart of the most potentially productive region on the planet for harvesting power from the sun. In other words, Saudi Arabia was the Saudi Arabia of solar energy.
Indiana’s Amish embracing wind, solar power
GRABILL, Ind. - Northeastern Indiana’s large Amish community is starting to embrace wind and solar energy to power their homes’ lights, refrigerators and other equipment.
Although many Amish rejected high-voltage electricity in the early 1920s because of the power lines that would have connected their people to the outside world, limited use of site-generated, low-voltage electricity is acceptable to many Amish.
Solar panels are hot for the stealing
They turn the sun’s rays into usable electricity, with proponents calling it an environmentally friendly alternative that saves money on utilities.
But the growing number of solar panels being installed on roofs of government buildings, private businesses and homes are becoming a hot commodity in a way many say they didn’t expect.
The Heat is on: America’s next president must play a key role averting crisis over global warming
Reflecting a consensus of hundreds of scientists around the world, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has affirmed that greenhouse gas emissions are raising the Earth’s temperature. The Earth is on a trajectory to warm more than 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit by around mid-century. Exceeding that threshold could trigger a series of phenomena: Arable land will turn into desert, higher sea levels will flood coastal areas, and changes in the convection of the oceans will alter currents, such as the Gulf Stream, that determine regional weather patterns.
Manhattan and Florida would be under water, while Nevada would have no water at all. Some Russians quip that they would welcome a more temperate climate, but they would probably be sorry to lose St. Petersburg. Countries such as Bangladesh and Mali do not have the resources to mitigate or even to adapt to the impact of climate change; millions would flee coastal flooding and the desertification of farmlands, creating instant “climate refugees.”
Ireland: Fears for landmark bridge
The National Conservation and Heritage Group believe higher tides caused by climate change are eroding the bridge’s structure and may have dangerously weakened its foundations.
The catastrophe behind climate change
As the estimated cost of measures proposed by politicians to “combat global warming” soars ever higher - such as the International Energy Council’s $45 trillion - “fighting climate change” has become the single most expensive item on the world’s political agenda.
As Senators Obama and McCain vie with the leaders of the European Union to promise 50, 60, even 80 per cent cuts in “carbon emissions”, it is clear that to realise even half their imaginary targets would necessitate a dramatic change in how we all live, and a drastic reduction in living standards.
Sierra climate change puts range’s species on the run
One century ago, alpine chipmunks owned the upper half of Yosemite. They skittered under logs and darted across rocks from the rugged Sierra crest down to the conifer forests at 7,800 feet. Today, they are missing in action below 9,800 feet.
”It’s lost half its geographic range,” Patton said. ”Climate is the culprit. I don’t think there is any iota of reason not to think that.”
For the first time in human history, the North Pole can be circumnavigated
Open water now stretches all the way round the Arctic, making it possible for the first time in human history to circumnavigate the North Pole, The Independent on Sunday can reveal. New satellite images, taken only two days ago, show that melting ice last week opened up both the fabled North-west and North-east passages, in the most important geographical landmark to date to signal the unexpectedly rapid progress of global warming.
Last night Professor Mark Serreze, a sea ice specialist at the official US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), hailed the publication of the images – on an obscure website by scientists at the University of Bremen, Germany – as “a historic event”, and said that it provided further evidence that the Arctic icecap may now have entered a “death spiral”. Some scientists predict that it could vanish altogether in summer within five years, a process that would, in itself, greatly accelerate.
But Sarah Palin, John McCain’s new running mate, holds that the scientific consensus that global warming is melting Arctic ice is unreliable.
When TreeHugger featured Robert “Chip” Beaman’s Wood Powered Pickup Truck, readers commented, aghast at the potential for humanity to destroy woodland resources if transportation infrastructure were to switch to wood gasification. Therefore, for your further consideration, may we introduce you to Victory Gasworks. Victory Gasworks’ Ben Peterson has built his own gasifier, specializing in biomass such as wood scraps, yard waste, and corn cobs. …
Hurricane Gustav is officially a Category 4 (as of 17:00 EDT) hurricane just south of Cuba. It is expected to intensify again after landfall in Cuba in the Gulf of Mexico.
Recent track shifts have it consistently hitting Louisiana, slightly east of the majority of oil and gas rigs, but this could easily change in either direction, in fact as of the 17:00 EST update, Chuck’s current models have the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port or LOOP being extensively damaged and offline, as well as refinery shut downs for some length of time.
Much more below the fold, including details of the latest damage estimates from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF as well as lot of other resources including rig maps, models, google earth maps, and a lot more in the comments. Please help us find things that help convey the energy situation and problems created by this storm. Client-type readers should click on Chuck Watson’s links - his long range Katrina forecasts were spot on and he has helped us -a website of volunteers - by volunteering a great deal of time and expertise .
Damage estimates using official NHC forecast-click twice to enlarge
For all graphics:
Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart;
Red: damage requiring repair.Refineries:
Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown)
Red: Damage likelyPorts: standard hurricane flags for wind
We hope those in the path of this behemoth will get out of the way, prepare, and do everything they can to preserve human life. Let’s hope this is all a waste of time and that this is not the human tragedy that it looks to be.
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Click map to go to WUnderground
UPDATED: 17:15 EST 8/30 Current track has LOOP out for extended period of time as well as some extensive refinery shutdowns.
Chuck comments:
The current tracks, both official and objective, are showing serious damage to the LOOP terminal as well as Southwest Pass. About a dozen refineries, including the big Baton Rouge Refinery (~500,000BPD), are showing at least week-long shutdowns and various levels of damage. Long term power and pipeline disruption is forecast in the target area, with extended rain (due to the storm stalling inland) making repairs difficult. It’s not a good forecast - in some ways, worse than Katrina.
However, one thing folks should keep in mind: right now the major track models are abnormally closely clustered in space if not in time. That (obviously!) means that they are either all right or all wrong. I’ve done this long enough to suspect the former . . .
Chuck Watson has created a table for us, showing expected production (vs original) for 14 day, 30 day, 60, 90 day, 6M, and 12M (updated 17:00 EST 8/30)
Forecast GOM Production Estimates based on various track models
Official Forecast Track
OFCL ATCF Forecast Time: 2008083018 14 day: 6.99 MMBBL ( 43.42% normal), gas 51.21 BCF ( 57.15% normal) 30 day: 19.89 MMBBL ( 57.65% normal), gas 137.55 BCF ( 71.64% normal) 60 day: 44.88 MMBBL ( 65.04% normal), gas 306.38 BCF ( 79.79% normal) 90 day: 70.56 MMBBL ( 68.17% normal), gas 485.33 BCF ( 84.26% normal) 6 mon : 152.45 MMBBL ( 73.65% normal), gas 1040.40 BCF ( 90.31% normal) 1 year: 341.75 MMBBL ( 81.42% normal), gas 2279.55 BCF ( 97.58% normal)Best Objective Track
BOTR ATCF Forecast Time: 2008083012 14 day: 6.44 MMBBL ( 40.00% normal), gas 48.65 BCF ( 54.29% normal) 30 day: 17.96 MMBBL ( 52.06% normal), gas 127.77 BCF ( 66.55% normal) 60 day: 45.40 MMBBL ( 65.80% normal), gas 290.50 BCF ( 75.65% normal) 90 day: 74.66 MMBBL ( 72.14% normal), gas 461.18 BCF ( 80.07% normal) 6 mon : 166.36 MMBBL ( 80.37% normal), gas 1013.94 BCF ( 88.02% normal) 1 year: 370.11 MMBBL ( 88.17% normal), gas 2275.52 BCF ( 97.41% normal)Alternate Scenario 1 Track
HWRF ATCF Forecast Time: 2008083012 14 day: 6.68 MMBBL ( 41.49% normal), gas 49.22 BCF ( 54.94% normal) 30 day: 20.74 MMBBL ( 60.12% normal), gas 132.73 BCF ( 69.13% normal) 60 day: 51.92 MMBBL ( 75.25% normal), gas 302.44 BCF ( 78.76% normal) 90 day: 84.07 MMBBL ( 81.23% normal), gas 478.66 BCF ( 83.10% normal) 6 mon : 185.95 MMBBL ( 89.83% normal), gas 1040.04 BCF ( 90.28% normal) 1 year: 398.70 MMBBL ( 94.99% normal), gas 2218.12 BCF ( 94.95% normal)
Chuck Watson update 17:00 EST 8/30: The tables show the expected and forecast cumulative production from the GOM at the end of each period. So according to the runs based on the Official NHC forecast, at the end of 90 days the GOM would have produced only 70 MMBBL as opposed to the normal 103 MMBBL, a 30% cumulative shut in.
Little wobbles matter a lot. It’s important to realize just how sensitive losses are to the exact track and geometry of the storm. As you’re probably aware, a few leases are responsible for the majority of production (I should do a map of that some time). The critical damage width, even for a strong storm, is really quite small - 30 miles wide or so. So a 10 mile wobble or a 20 degree change of approach can make a huge difference in impacts. The expected shear means greater asymmetry in the storm, which also changes the geometry. As I’ve said all along, the numbers tend to be all over the place until we get to about 2-3 days out.
Chuck has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models.
Rain estimates using GFS forecast
Rain forecast from GFS - over 1 foot of rain immediately post storm, another 10″ on day 2, 8″ day 3. Wow.
UPDATED
PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION
Here’s a link to a really good map of oil refining/SPR storage facilities in respect to the path of Katrina (NB: OLD TRACK MAP!) and here is a listing of production and refining capability for the state of LA.
Just to give you a rough idea of where things are, the map above is a probability swath for Katrina (OLD TRACK MAP!) with the Thunder Horse platform as the red dot, and the other purple dot represents the Mad Dog development (100,000 bd); the Holstein development that produces at peak, around 100,000 bd of oil; and the Atlantis field that may have ramped up to around 200,000 bd in all. Put together these projects have the potential of around 650,000 bd, but as can be seen, they were sitting in an uncomfortable spot relative to the track of the Katrina.The white dot is where Port Fourchon is. This is where the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, is located. Rigzone pointed out that this is where the foreign tankers offload, Google and Terraserve maps you can see that the area is very low-lying. One of the big concerns is that there will be sub-sea landslides or other ground movement that might affect the LOOP. Were this to be disrupted, then foreign tankers would need to be diverted elsewhere, with the likely port being Houston.
We have accumulated resources from previous hurricans below, but we’d like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.
Also, here’s the EIA’s Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here’s a link to the national page.
Here’s another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)
Here’s a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)
Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)
Here’s a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps from Hurricane Rita, it emphasizes Beaumont and Galveston’s importance. Click on oil production in the tab. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm…hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.
You want a detailed map? Well here’s the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)
Also, Scott Wilmoth at Simmons & Co was kind enough to send us this map. The map below captures only deepwater infrastructure. For a complete list of deepwater development systems (includes operator, depth, location): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/dpstruct.html
(Please deposit new relevant links, graphs, and comments in this new thread…we have updated the resources part of this post with new maps and some more old maps and articles from Katrina on the LOOP and Port Fourchon–important parts of the infrastructure, as we learned about three years ago. We will start a third thread when we get new info or Sat pm)
How Biden’s Foreign Policy Experience Supplements Obama’s Climate Policy While the traditional media has largely focused on touting Biden’s long tenure in the Senate and foreign policy expertise as key assets that will add gravitas to the Democratic campaign, it has spent little time examining how the Delaware senator’s experience could supplement Obama’s policies in other areas (the obvious ones being national security and foreign affairs, of course). Though it may not seem obvious at first blush, Biden may end up proving most valuable to Obama in lending his foreign policy chops to tackle climate change.<a href=”http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeremy-j…
