Article Archive for February 2008
Forecast for Conventional Fossil Fuels per Capita.
Sources:
UN for Population model,
Jean Laherrère [pdf!] for Natural Gas,
Energy Watch Group for Coal and
The Oil Drum - Khebab for Oil. Click for large
version.
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Foreword
My first post at TOD was published by Heading Out about 2 years ago on this
same subject. Some rather naïve forecasts were made back then, without exactly
addressing the main subject: can Mankind avoid the Road to the Olduvai Gorge?
This is a first try in answering that question.
The work on this article started in the Spring of 2007, when Euan Mearns tried
to show that Peak Oil does not necessarily imply an Energy crunch. Partly due
to my critique, Euan’s work would never see the light of day. Sometime later,
Euan and I started working together on the work reported here, focusing on
Conventional Fossil Fuels (FF). The fact that several studies on future Coal
reserves and extraction rates were published in the interim, facilitated our
work.
This work would end up being a collective post by TOD:E, Rembrandt kindly
provided historical FF data and Chris Vernon would solve some issues with the
conversion of primary energy to heat. An important leap towards the conclusion
of this work was made during the weekend of the 1st of December, when the TOD:E
staff gathered in Paris, kindly hosted by Jérôme.
Introduction
The Olduvai Gorge Theory was first laid out by
Richard Duncan in 1989, when he observed
that world energy per capita had been declining for a decade. He developed the
concept of Electrical Civilization, the way of life made possible by widespread
and abundant electricity and set it to the period in which world energy per
capita is above 30% of its all-time peak. The Theory was postulated it in the
following way:
X, as measured by average energy-use per person per year.
years: i.e., X < 100 years.
Figure 1 - The three phases of the Olduvai Decline. Source:
WolfAtTheDoor.
The post-peak period develops in three phases:
-
The Olduvai Slope – a period of slow -
The Olduvai Slide – a period triggered -
The Olduvai Cliff – the collapse of
decline;
by Peak Oil when decline would accelerate;
Electrical Civilization with overwhelming decline of energy per capita.
This seminal work would result in Duncan’s
collaboration with geologist Walter
Youngquist. Together they would forecast future
Oil production for more than 40 countries,
confirming Duncan’s initial forecast of a decline in energy consumption in the
not to distant future.
As the years went by it became clear that world energy per capita was in a
plateau, not a decline, and in 2005 the 1979 peak was surpassed. Still, almost
ninety percent of the total energy used world wide comes from fossil fuels. If
such dependence on finite resources remains, the Olduvai Theory may eventually
unfold.
Figure 2 - World Primary Energy Per Capita. Population from
UN, Energy from
BP BOE - barrels oil equivalent.
This work tries to assess how the decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels may
unfold and how can Mankind avoid the Road that may take us back to the Olduvai
Gorge.
The Future of Conventional Fossil Fuels
In the context of this work, Conventional Fossil Fuels represents the kinds of
these resources in production today. These may include fuels usually called
Unconventional like the Tar Sands or Coal Bed Methane. It is assumed that none
of the Unconventional Fuels Fossil will have a visible impact on the overall
world energy production for two main reasons: the volumes produced are unlikely
to be significant (e.g. Tar Sands) and the net energy balance of some is
doubtfully positive (e.g. Ultra-deep Offshore). The one exception is Coal where
in-situ gasification might turn important Resources into Reserves (this issue
will be dealt with later).
Our approach has been to use what we regard as the best researched and most
reliable estimates for future global oil natural gas and coal production. Each
fuel is re-based in “oil equivalent”. And we use the UN population forecasts to
derive a per capita FF forecast. However, the main objective of this work is to
develop scenarios for alternative energies (nuclear and renewables) that may
partially fill the energy gap left by declining FF. These scenarios are not
forecasts but have been produced to illustrate the scale of the energy problem
that now confronts Mankind.
Oil
For
Oil, the forecast made by Khebab using a
Loglets Transform, was chosen. This scenario
is in line with those of several other researchers: Jean Lahèrrere, Colin
Campbell, Chris Skebrowski and Kenneth Deffeyes. Laid down this way, Oil
Production peaks by 2012.
Figure 3 - Conventional Oil Forecast (including NGL) according to the
Loglets Transform.
Natural Gas
The scenario chosen for Natural Gas is that produced by
Jean Laherrère portraying a peak by 2030.
This scenario can be considered optimistic to some extent, but takes into
account the high degree of uncertainty on Natural Gas forecasting, among other
reasons, due to poor data on past discovery and production. This forecast also
includes Coal Bed Methane and other Unconventional gas sources.
Figure 4 - Natural Gas Forecast (including Unconventional). Source:
Jean Laherrère [pdf!].
Coal
Coal
has been regarded as an infinite resource on a generation time scale, but
recent assessments imply otherwise. The following graph shows three independent
forecasts, by
Jean Laherrère, the
Energy Watch Group and
David Rutledge, all peaking before
mid-century. Of these the one made by the Energy Watch Group was chosen, for
being at the midst of the three and for the thoroughness involved in its
production. This scenario presents a plateau roughly from 2020 to 2040.
Figure 5 - Conventional Coal Forecasts. Sources:
Jean Laherrère [pdf!],
Energy Watch Group and
David Rutledge. Click for large version.
Fossil Fuel Olduvai
When added together these three forecasts present an overall Conventional Fossil
Fuels peak by 2018, forming a single cycle which by itself is a notable result.
If for instance a higher Coal estimate is used, the peak hardly moves and the
only visible effect is a slowdown of the decline.
Figure 6 - Together the Conventional Fossil Fuels are set to peak before 2020 describing a
single cycle.
Sources:
Jean Laherrère [pdf!] for Natural Gas,
Energy Watch Group for Coal and
The Oil Drum for Oil. Click for large
version.
A population model was developed using United Nations data, to which a single
logistic cycle was adjusted. World Population tops 7 billion just after 2010,
reaches 8 billion before 2030, 9 billion by 2050 and stabilizes after that to
end up in 9.8 billion by the end of the century.
Figure 7 - Population growth model using a single logistic cycle.
Base data source:
UN. Click for large version.
The outcome of these models is a Fossil Fuel per capita peak by 2012 in tandem
with Peak Oil, although it is maintained above 10 barrels of oil equivalent
from now up to 2020. By 2050 that number is below 6 barrels of oil equivalent
per capita declining to just above 1 by the end of the century. Led by the
Conventional Fossil Fuels, the Olduvai Pulse is interpreted to be much longer
than anticipated by Duncan, extending its life for 160 years, from 1910 to
2070.
Figure 8 - Forecast for Conventional Fossil Fuels per Capita.
Sources:
UN for Population model,
Jean Laherrère [pdf!] for Natural Gas,
Energy Watch Group for Coal and
The Oil Drum for Oil. Click for large
version.
The total useful energy drawn from Conventional Fossil Fuels equates today to
more than 300 Twh every day, or the equivalent to 4250 Nuclear power plants
working non-stop.
The Scenarios
Henceforth this article tries to assess what actions are required for the
current standards of living to be sustained throughout the XXI century. Using
again the United Nations population forecast the build up of alternative energy
infrastructure is determined in order to compensate for the decline of
Conventional Fossil Fuels.
Four different scenarios are presented: two in which several alternative energy
sources are used to cover the gap left by the Fossil Fuels. And two others
where world energy use undergoes a significant efficiency improvement enabling
living standards to be maintained on a much lower per capita energy
consumption. A fifth scenario, where world population declines significantly is
not presented here.
The alternative energy sources considered are the following:
-
Nuclear - assuming that no shortages of
nuclear fuel may unfold or that new technologies like breeder reactors or
accelerator driven systems are timely developed. Nuclear went from friend to
foe during the XX century to emerge again as an alternative with the end of
cheap Oil. Concerns with the fuel supply have been present since the 1970s, to
which Thorium and breeder systems promise to put an end, perhaps one or two
decades from now. Problems could remain with waste disposal, due to negative
public opinion, and weapons production. Accelerator driven systems and fusion
rectors could in their turn solve these last problems, but if successful are
several decades away.The basic infrastructure unit used corresponds to a 1 Gw plant operating at
full capacity. -
Unconventional Coal - assuming the
development of technologies needed to access deeper seams, offshore or other
constrained resources. Great uncertainty surrounds the future of Coal Resources
not extractable today. Technologies like in-situ gasification can potentially
access seams presently inaccessible while at the same time addressing concerns
with CO2 emissions; but a proof of concept is yet to be achieved.
Unconventional Coal is also a non-renewable resource that may not look like the
best alternative to build a sustainable future upon, although it can eventually
provide an important launch pad for it.The basic infrastructure unit used corresponds to a 600 Mw plant operating at
full capacity. -
Wind energy - both on its onshore and
offshore forms. A renewable energy source with a proven track record, is now
technologically where Nuclear was in the 1960s. In Europe the offshore
infrastructure is still young and could revolutionize the electricity
generation sector. Presently, the main challenge to this alternative is energy
storage, although in this case technology (or the lack of thereof) should not
be a problem.The infrastructure units correspond to 3 Mw turbines operating at 30% load for
Onshore Wind and to 5 Mw turbines at 40% load for Offshore. -
Solar - the dormant giant? At an
earlier stage of market penetration compared to Wind, it will certainly undergo
the same kind of growth. Due to the simplicity of passive systems and the
falling costs of photovoltaics, a Solar revolution could be on the making.
Especially in the warmer countries of the Temperate Regions this will likely be
a major energy source in the XXI century.The basic infrastructure unit reflects the average insulation at 40º latitude
per Km2 captured with an efficiency of 15%.
These alternative
energy sources were compared to the Fossil Fuels on the grounds of the
electricity they produce. To generate useful energy, Fossil Fuels generally
undergo a process in which they are transformed into heat that is then captured
as motion, electricity, etc. With some of the alternative energy sources a
similar process takes place (e.g. a Nuclear reactor that heats water into steam
that turns a turbine generating electricity).
Figure 9 - Simple schematics of a Carnot heat engine.
Primary Energy refers to Qin, Useful Energy to work done (W). The engine’s efficiency is given by W/Qin.
Click to know more.
Given that for most of the alternatives the nameplate generation capacity
refers to electricity output, the numbers shown henceforth refer to this stage
of energy generation. For the primary energy to heat transformation an
efficiency of one third was used. This is a postulated round number that seems
representative enough; a combined cycle Natural Gas power plant probably
achieves a higher efficiency, while for a Daimler internal combustion engine it
will likely be lower. As an example, using this efficiency number, a 1 Gw
Nuclear power plant operating during an hour replaces 3 Gwh of primary energy
from the Fossil Fuels (approximately 1800 boe).
Before moving on two important implicit assumptions of these scenarios should
be made explicit:
-
Net Energy – it is assumed that the
overall Energy Return on Investment of these alternatives is exactly the same
of the overall Conventional Fossil Fuels. That is hardly the case, but the
difficulty in assessing Net Energy accurately impedes a sound analysis on this
ground. Especially in the case of Coal, that likely has a return on investment
much higher that the other sources, this issue could be determinant. Future
work will have to address this problem. -
Energy Vectors – it is assumed that all
energy vectors are substituted by electricity (the only exception being passive
solar use: cooking, water heating, etc). The reasons why will be explained in
future work, but it implies the build up of additional infrastructure that is
not present in the numbers shown below.
The following curves will show the number of new plants or equipments needed
each year to cover the lag left by the fossil fuel decline.
Scenario I
– A single energy source.
In this first scenario it is shown how each of these energy sources can tackle
the energy gap left by declining FF on its own. In this case, new
infrastructure must be deployed starting in 2018 rising fast to a peak
deployment rate before 2040 and then slowly easing down. At peak, more than 4
500 Thw must be generated from new infrastructure. By the end of the century
this sums up to a 140 000 Twh of energy generated per year from alternative
energy sources.
Table 1 - Scenario I in numbers.
|
Scenario I |
New infrastructure per year at peak | Total infrastructure in 2100 |
| Nuclear | 90 | 5 400 |
| Coal | 155 | 9 000 |
| Offshore Wind | 46 000 | 2 700 000 |
| Onshore Wind | 100 000 | 6 000 000 |
| Solar (Km2) | 3 000 | 190 000 |
Scenario II
– Three simultaneous energy sources.
The second scenario considers the case where three of these alternative energy
sources are deployed simultaneously to fill the energy gap. This results in the
previous numbers being divided by three, with the following curves assuming
that two other alternative energy sources are being stepped up simultaneously.
Peak is now at 1 500 Twh generated per year from each additional source,
reaching more than 45 000 Twh generated per source per year by the end of the
century.
Table 2 - Scenario II in numbers.
|
Scenario II |
New infrastructure per year at peak | Total infrastructure in 2100 |
| Nuclear | 30 | 1 800 |
| Coal | 50 | 3 000 |
| Offshore Wind | 15 000 | 900 000 |
| Onshore Wind | 35 000 | 2 000 000 |
| Solar (Km2) | 1 000 | 60 000 |
The Efficiency Wedge
For the remaining scenarios a world wide improvement in energy efficiency is factored in. Presently the world’s consumption of fossil fuels is close to 70 Gboe (just over 10 boe/cap/a), while the global GDP is just under 70 T$. This results in less than 1 000 dollars generated for each barrel of oil equivalent consumed. The following graph shows the relation between fossil fuel use and GDP per capita in several countries, both developed and developing nations, excluding the Middle East oil producers.
Figure 12 - GDP generated per barrel of oil equivalent consumed of Fossil Fuels. GDP from
Wikipedia, Energy from
BP.
World average GDP per capita was calculated with data from more than 180 countries resulting in 10 000 dollars per year. Using the trend in Figure 12 it becomes apparent that such average wealth standards should be sustained with just 5 barrels of oil equivalent per capita per year. This results in an efficiency of 2 000 dollars produced per barrel of oil equivalent, a number that is used as the target for global energy use efficiency.
The trend also shows that higher income countries are those that tend to have lower energy efficiency. So being, a global increase in energy efficiency use would be achieved mostly at the expense of developed nations. Some highly populated developing nations with lower energy use efficiency would likely also need some improvements.
No assumptions are made concerning wealth distribution, it is just set that, on average, each barrel of oil equivalent generates 2 000 dollars of GDP worldwide. Such is already the case in several countries, both developed and developing nations, as seen in the following table:
Table 3 - GDP generated per boe of Fossil Fuel consumed in several countries.
| Country | GDP(US$)/boe(FF) |
| Colombia | 3 348 |
| Peru | 2 897 |
| India | 2 698 |
| Switzerland | 2 673 |
| Sweden | 2 599 |
| Argentina | 2 451 |
| France | 2 326 |
| Norway | 2 312 |
| Republic of Ireland | 2 210 |
| United Kingdom | 2 207 |
| Austria | 2 204 |
| Hungary | 2 097 |
| Italy | 2 089 |
| Pakistan | 2 051 |
| Denmark | 2 028 |
| Brasil | 2 018 |
| Germany | 1 887 |
| China | 1 730 |
| USA | 1 274 |
| Canada | 1 052 |
| Saudi Arabia | 462 |
Reflecting this relation a model was thus developed in which the fraction of today’s annual energy (derived from the fossil fuels) use per capita slowly declines throughout the XXI century to 5 barrels of oil equivalent (approximately 2.8 Mwh of useful energy).
Figure 13 - The Efficiency Wedge model: primary energy needs per capita fall to 5 boe/a (8.5
Mwh/a) thought the XXI century.
In light of this model the previous scenarios are revisited. The build up
curves are markedly different, showing two distinct phases of growth. At first
the alternative energy sources must grow rapidly to fill the gap, but as the
efficiency wedge factors in, the build up almost stalls by mid century. Then,
as the conventional fossil fuels reach their final days the build up has to
slowly increase again.
Figure 14 - With the Efficiency Wedge the build up curves start latter and exhibit two
distinct phases of growth.
Scenario III
– A single energy source with efficiency wedge.
Scenario III illustrates the amount of new infrastructure required for each of
the alternatives assuming that the energy efficiency wedge reduces our
consumption by half towards the end of the XXI century . Infrastructure build
up now peaks just under 1 500 Twh additionally generated per year, summing 60
000 Twh of energy generated per year by 2100.
Table 4 - Scenario III in numbers.
|
Scenario III |
New infrastructure per year at peak | Total infrastructure in 2100 |
| Nuclear | 55 | 2 200 |
| Coal | 90 | 3 700 |
| Offshore Wind | 28 000 | 1 100 000 |
| Onshore Wind | 62 000 | 2 500 000 |
| Solar (Km2) | 2 000 | 75 000 |
Scenario IV
– Three simultaneous energy sources with efficiency wedge.
The last scenario looks at three alternatives simultaneously tackling the
energy gap with the efficiency wedge reducing consumption. Infrastructure build
up now peaks with 500 Twh additionally generated per year, summing 20 000 Twh
generated per year by century’s end.
Table 5 - Scenario IV in numbers.
Scenario IV |
New infrastructure per year at peak |
Total infrastructure in 2100 |
| Nuclear | 19 | 740 |
| Coal | 30 | 1 200 |
|
Offshore Wind |
9 300 | 370 000 |
|
Onshore Wind |
21 000 | 820 000 |
|
Solar (Km2) |
640 | 25 000 |
Conclusion
According to our analysis, conventional fossil fuels are set to peak in a
decade or so and following that, decline will open an ever widening gap from
today’s per capita energy use. Based on finite FF resources, energy per capita
is indeed headed towards a cliff, and this may lead Mankind back to the Olduvai
Gorge if action is not taken to address this problem. Many of those who have
studied this problem in the past have concluded that the journey back to
Olduvai is unavoidable.
The analysis presented here suggests that it is within
the capacity of human endeavor to build new energy gathering infrastructure to
substitute for the decline in conventional fossil fuels. By combining energy
efficiency measures with the simultaneous expansion of solar, wind and nuclear
energy Mankind may secure a civilised existence for the XXI century. A
tremendous opportunity exists to build a more sustainable energy future and
building this future will provide vast opportunity for economic growth and
prosperity.
Figure 17 - Useful Energy from the Fossil Fuels.
The solid areas reflect the useful energy got from the Fossil Fuels according to the data and models used. The dashed lines reflect the total energy needed to maintain current standards of energy use per capita, with the orange line also factoring in the efficiency wedge model.
Click for large version.
The next two to three decades are crucial, where the fastest build of
alternative infrastructure is needed, and when the efficiency wedge will have
the slowest effect. But the numbers contemplated here are not insurmountable,
and should be tackled with the right commitment and timely action.
To all the humans facing the Road to the Olduvai Gorge, Good Luck!
LuÃs de Sousa
Euan Mearns
TheOilDrum:Europe
Annex
Following
is a spreadsheet with the data and calculations involved in the making of this
article:
Open Document version:
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Olduvai2008.ods [240Kb]
Microsoft version:
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Olduvai2008.xls [660Kb]
Declining Oil Supply Means War Is ‘Fairly Probable,’ Rep. Bartlett Says (with video)
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) said “that war is a fairly probable consequence†of peaking and declining world oil supplies. Bartlett spoke to Energy Policy TV about oil supplies as a guest on the EPTV News Roundtable series. Video of the full interview is available at no cost: Bartlett EPTV News Roundtable.
China is buying significant amounts of oil to fuel its economy and meet the needs of its people. But while China is bolstering its oil supply, its leaders are planning for a future without oil, Bartlett said.
China wants to foster international cooperation to deal with constrained oil supplies, Bartlett said. “They recognize that any one country, going it alone, is not going to be able to solve this problem. But while they plead for international cooperation, they wisely plan as if there won’t be any because they are out there buying oil everywhere they can. At the same time they are buying this oil, they are aggressively building a blue-water navy,†he said.
That navy is beyond anything the Chinese would need in a confrontation with Taiwan, Bartlett said. Rather, he said, they are anticipating a day when oil supplies are so constrained that they have to tell the rest of the world, “Gee, I’m sorry, guys, it’s our oil. We have a billion, three-hundred million people and we can no longer share it.â€
[break]
Oil could reach $300, says expert
Matthew Simmons, chairman and founder of specialised energy investment banking firm, Simmons & Company International, said the current highs of $100 per barrel are “cheap”.
“I think the supply is showing some very troubling signs that we might well have already peaked and started [to slow] down. If we haven’t, we are very close to it,” he told Arabian Business. “Demand on the other hand shows absolutely no sign of slowing down because we are now at $100 a barrel, which I still think is a preposterously cheap price. It works out at just $0.15 a cup.
“A cup of gas will get a car with six passengers in, with the air conditioning on and go two miles. It’s a bargain,” he added.
OPEC ministers say oil output will not increase, citing a weak global economy
VIENNA, Austria - OPEC decided Friday against pumping more oil in a rebuff to the United States and a possible prelude to cuts as early as next month should the wounded U.S. economy sap demand for crude.
The decision arrived despite U.S. urgings - backed by other major consumers - for more oil on the market to cool prices and relieve inflationary pressures that have contributed to fears of a global economic downturn.
Loss of wind causes Texas power grid emergency
HOUSTON (Reuters) - A drop in wind generation late on Tuesday, coupled with colder weather, triggered an electric emergency that caused the Texas grid operator to cut service to some large customers, the grid agency said on Wednesday.
Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said a decline in wind energy production in west Texas occurred at the same time evening electric demand was building as colder temperatures moved into the state.
House OKs new taxes on big oil companies
WASHINGTON - The House approved $18 billion in new taxes on the largest oil companies Wednesday as Democrats cited record oil prices and rising gasoline costs in a time of economic troubles.
The money collected over 10 years would provide tax breaks for wind, solar and other alternative energy sources and for energy conservation. The legislation, approved 236-182, would cost the five largest oil companies an average of $1.8 billion a year over that period, according an analysis by the House Ways and Means Committee. Those companies earned $123 billion last year.
Nigeria’s Brass River oil output cut by attack
(Reuters) - Oil output at Nigeria’s Brass River crude oil stream has been reduced because of a militant attack on Feb. 24, oil traders said on Thursday.
No Nigeria Brass oil attack, operator Eni says
MILAN/LAGOS, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Italian energy firm Eni denied on Thursday that its Nigerian Brass River crude oil stream had been attacked by militants.
“We are not aware of any attack and there has only been a minor stop in production due to technical problems at one minor flow station at Brass. Production is nearly normal,” an Eni spokeswoman told Reuters.
Connecticut to hear testimony on establishment of a energy scarcity taskforce
AN ACT CONCERNING ENERGY SCARCITY AND SECURITY.
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives in General Assembly convened:
Section 1. (Effective from passage) (a) There is established a task force to study energy scarcity and sustainability. The task force shall conduct scenario planning for long-term petroleum and natural gas scarcity, steep price increases and supply disruptions. Such study shall include, but not be limited to, examining price and scarcity impacts of natural gas and petroleum on the economy, food supply, transportation, education, health and emergency response.
The public is invited to testify.
UAE rejects advice to de-peg from dollar
DUBAI - The United Arab Emirates will not de-peg its currency from the flagging US dollar, the central bank governor was quoted as saying in remarks published on Thursday. His comments came after former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan advised oil-rich Gulf Arab states whose currencies are pegged to the dollar to float their currencies as a means to curb inflation.
“The dollar is on its way to strengthening, and it is not logical to speak now of de-pegging the dirham from the dollar,†Sultan bin Nasser Al Suwaidi told the Abu Dhabi-based daily Al-Ittihad.
China welcomes president of oil-rich Nigeria
BEIJING: President Hu Jintao of China, which is increasingly looking to Africa for natural resources to feed its booming economy, gave a warm welcome Thursday to the president of oil-rich Nigeria.
South Korea to Increase Imports of Saudi Crude
South Korea’s top refiner has decided to crank up its imports of Saudi crude by 50 percent starting in April. SK Energy plans to import a total of 135,000 barrels per day, or 49.27 million barrels per year, from state-run Saudi Aramco, up 47,000 barrels per day from the current 88,000.
SK Energy has had difficulty in securing a sufficient oil supply since Iraq suspended all crude exports to South Korea in protest of an exploration deal between Korean companies, including SK, and the Kurdish regional government.
Israel renews talks with Gazprom
Sources inform “Globes” that senior officials at the Ministry of National Infrastructures, including director general Hezi Kugler, left for Russia this week, apparently in order to meet representatives of Russian energy giant Gazprom. It is believed the aim of the meeting is to make progress on an agreement for the supply of natural gas from Russia to Israel, following the talks the governments of the two countries held on the deal last year.
Aramco’s $90 billion five-year plan
“We also need the whole world to arrive at greater clarity as to what it wants and realistically can achieve in terms of a future energy mix; to achieve a greater consensus among producers and consumers about the roles and responsibilities of each in terms of realizing that mix; and finally, to enhance the security of both supply and of demand over the long term,” said Jum‘ah.
“With time, we will need to draw upon a variety of energy sources, including alternatives, to help meet demand,” he said, pointing out that expert forecasts indicate fossil fuels will continue to dominate global energy supplies for the foreseeable future. In fact, the share of fossil fuels is predicted to remain above 80% through the year 2030.
The shape of lights to come? Not everyone’s buying it
But now that more people are using CFLs, the bulbs’ shortcomings are giving some consumers pause. Consumers are raising concerns about the quality of light from such bulbs and say they often don’t work well with dimmer switches, in certain light fixtures or in hot or cold conditions.
And although fluorescent bulbs are less expensive to use in the long run, some consumers are turned off by the cost: $3 to $10, compared with about 50 cents for regular bulbs. Meanwhile, retailers such as IKEA are setting up recycling programs in response to concerns about how to dispose of CFLs, which contain mercury and could pose a health hazard if they break and are not cleaned up properly.
Such drawbacks help explain why, even though one in five bulbs sold in the USA is now a compact fluorescent, a lower percentage of American homes — estimates run as low as 11% — have at least one of the bulbs.
In appearance at least, it’s a case for the ages. The grounding of the Valdez, allegedly caused by an intoxicated captain, was one of the major environmental disasters of the last few decades. It pits America’s largest company and most influential industry groups against the state of Alaska, several of the state’s most prominent politicians (including Republican Sens. Ted Stevens and Lisa Murkowski) and environmental groups.
Ghana: Crude Oil - Blessing Or Curse?
We have every right to celebrate the news of the oil discovery in the country particularly when the nation had just wallowed in the darkness of energy crisis for nearly a year. Moreover, with crude oil prices reaching record high, we ought to rejoice as the great book says ‘again, I say rejoice’.
However, whilst rejoicing on the discovery of the oil we should not allow our heart to override our head in this matter. Crude oil is not the solution to our problem. It is like the bitter bile on the liver. One ought to be careful when attempting to take the liver as it might result in bursting the bitter bile.
Transit-Oriented Development - By the Numbers
The compact, walkable neighborhood built around public transit rather than the private car has long been one of the ideals of new urbanism. Now significant new research confirms with hard numbers the advantage of transit-oriented development over conventional suburbia. With the United States in the midst of a light-rail building boom, it’s a great time to be finding this out.
Summit reveals Abu Dhabi as world leader in race for future energy solutions
The first World Future Energy Summit, which took place in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last month, has firmly established this small Gulf emirate as a world leader in the increasingly urgent race to find innovative solutions to the coming energy crisis.
Renewable Energy: Approaching Grid Parity?
So to summarize: We need more energy. Oil is more expensive and harder to get. Yet renewables are not competitive, even with the rising prices of fossil fuels.
What is this guy smoking?
Radiant Future: Our suburban lifestyle is doomed by the energy crisis
In the docudrama Radiant City, written and directed by Gary Burns and Jim Brown and just out on DVD, one scene captures the mess made by our “way of life.” Author and critic James Howard Kunstler is standing on an asphalt path for bikes and jogging; the path is affixed to a brand new subdivision that resembles a moonscape with houses. Traffic whizzes by Kunstler on either side of a fence, barely five feet away. As the wind from the SUVs blows his necktie to and fro, Kunstler tries to explain why this pathetic little amenity — slapped onto the landscape by some designer in an office cubicle hundreds of miles away — is an “assault on your neurology” with the “ambiance of a prison.”
G8, EU make progress in climate commitments: study
OTTAWA (AFP) - The Group of Eight industrialized nations and the European Union have made greater strides this past year than previously in meeting their commitments to stem global warming, said a report Wednesday.
“This year, compliance has increased noticeably across climate-related commitments,” said the G8 Research Group’s annual compliance report.
U.S. Remains Cool to Warming Pact
Read quickly, the latest White House statement on climate change may have sounded like news - good news. On Monday, Daniel Price, the Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economic Affairs, told reporters in Paris that the U.S. would be willing to accept mandatory international limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Coming from an Administration that has steadfastly resisted mandatory caps, withdrawn from the Kyoto Protocol and effectively derailed any serious global effort to slow climate change, this could have been a big deal. But as is so often the case with the Bush Administration’s environmental policies, the devil is in the details.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Tax of 2008 (H.R. 5351) on Wednesday. The final vote of 236-182, with 11 members of the house not voting, and was largely split along party lines.
groSolar is pleased to announce the addition of Chris Evans, Distribution Sales, to their sales team. Mr. Evans long history with renewable energy and presence in Canada will strengthen and broaden groSolar’s reach in Canada.
The renewable energy industry is stepping up its meteoric rise into the mainstream of the energy sector, according to the REN21 Renewables 2007 Global Status Report. Renewable energy production capacities are growing rapidly as a result of more countries enacting far-reaching policies. In 2007, global wind generating capacity is estimated to have increased 28 percent, while grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity rose 52 percent.
At the end of 2007, Sharp Corporation became the first company to reach 2 gigawatts (GW) in cumulative solar cell production volume in the world. The company began research into solar cells in 1959 to develop a new technology to follow the success of the television and started mass-production in 1963. It is estimated that the current world’s cumulative solar cell production volume is 8 GW, meaning Sharp has produced a full one-quarter of this.
